Losing Hope: Brexit Bullet

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In Brexit today: hopes that May can make a deal with Labor are fading.

Can Theresa Mai make a deal with Brexit with Jeremy Corbyn? The dynamic resulting from the local elections failure of both parties last week has proved to be short-lived, and both sides are still rather dull.

So the focus turns to the next thing. The Prime Minister promised to ask Parliament to vote on alternative Brexit options if negotiations failed. However, Parliament has already tried and failed to find a system that forces lawmakers to unite around something. The trick is to find something.

It is worth remembering the results last time. The customs union proposal of Ken Clarke–the lowest common denominator for the greatest possible support–has failed with three votes. A referendum proposal on the Brexit agreement was also lost, but there were more votes than the Customs union-the results were 280 vs. 292 on April 1st. The six weeks since Brexit stagnated could at least help reduce this gap.

One of the key elements of the Labor talks is that the opposition can not trust May’s eventual successor will live up to the commitments of her team. The problem gets more acute when Conservatives are losing more patience with May. Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell says that it’s like “trying to sign a contract with a company that goes into administration.” Graham Brady, head of the Tories file, gave May until 4 p.m. Wednesday to fix a schedule to leave or find it compelled to leave it, according to the Telegraph. Stay tuned for the next checkmate-defying manoeuvre by the Prime Minister.

Brexit in Brief

No-Deal Talk is Back | Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay told colleagues at Tuesday’s cabinet meeting that the government must not give up preparing contingency measures for a no-deal split from the EU, Tim Ross reports. Barclay warned that a no-deal Brexit is still possible if no agreement has been reached when the EU’s extended deadline expires Oct. 31, according to people familiar with the situation.

Cut-Price Campaign | The Tories will run a low-budget campaign for the EU elections, which is designed as a damage-limitation exercise, the Times reports.

German Weakness | The European Commission cut its growth forecasts for the euro area and slashed its projection for Germany as it warned that escalating trade tensions threaten to make the outlook even worse.  The forecast for Germany’s economy in 2019 was cut to just 0.5 percent from 1.1 percent.

Le Pen Lead| Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party remains in the lead based on French voting intentions ahead of this month’s European elections, with 24%, according to the latest EuroTrack OpinionWay-Tilder poll for Les Echos. 

Another Move| U.K. asset manager Baillie Gifford opened a sales office in Frankfurt to serve clients on the  continent. The company said the move was “just the start”  as it plans to “explore opportunities across the region.”

Who Knows? |  Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane said it’s reasonable to take a different view to the bank on Brexit and the assumptions about what it will mean. 

On the Markets | The pound edged lower on Tuesday as expectations of a deal between the government and opposition faded. It traded at $1.3070 early on Wednesday.

No-Deal Talk is Back At the Cabinet meeting on Tuesday Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay told colleagues the government should not give up the preparation of contingency measures for no-deal split from the EU, reports Tim Ross. Barclay warned that no-deal Brexit is still possible when no agreement is reached at the end of October 31 of the prolonged EU deadline based on familiar figures.

Cut-Price Campaign The Tories will launch a low-budget election campaign designed to limit damage, reports Times.

German Weakness The European Commission has cut the eurozone’s growth forecast and slashed its forecast for Germany by warning that increased trade tensions are threatening to exacerbate the outlook. The 2019 forecast for Germany’s economy was reduced to only 0.5% from 1.1%.

Le Pen Lead Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party remains ahead of the European elections, 24 per cent, according to the latest EuroTrack OpinionWay-Tilder poll for Les Echos, based on French electoral intentions.

Another movement United Kingdom. Asset manager Baillie Gifford has opened a Frankfurt sales office to serve customers across the continent. The company said that the move was “just the beginning” when it intends to “exploring opportunities throughout the region.” Chief Economist of the Bank of England Andy Haldane said it is reasonable to take a different view of the Brexit bank and its assumptions of what this will mean.

On the market, The pound was reduced on Tuesday as government-opposition expectations of a deal faded. Early on Wednesday, it traded at $1,3070.

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